Interesting question.
Thinking that the limitations of TV will somehow stop the development of home gaming, or thinking that future technological improvements in raw processing power are trivial is thinking inside of the box. The consoles are more than devices attached to a tv set.
I agree that the Wii is a taste of what is to come in terms of gaming future, and it also gives some idea of which of these companies has a long term commitment. Nintendo will never stop. People will play games, and Nintendo will be there making the devices that the games can be played on. Sony has interest in home entertainment, so I think they will also stay in the game, but providing more conventional solutions, aligned technologically and conceptually with their other technology. I don't think that Sony will quit the game in the foreseeable future, seeing that they are also trying to enhance the gaming experience outside the world of the TV as Nintendo has done.
The one player that is the most bound to the world it was born in is MS, which is loosing scope as gaming moves forward, further from the world of the flat screens and the traditional pad controls etc. MS has their touch screen solutions in the works, but somehow I see that as an enhancement to what has been done already, when Nintendo is obviously looking for ways to truely pull the players in, and Sony wants to follow there.
I could write endlessly on the future of the gaming, as I see it will change radically in the next 15 years. The game console was a revolution, and we will see another sooner than some people think - it already started.
Consoles will change - handhelds might actually be the closest thing we will see akin to current gameconsoles in terms of gaming experience as the consoles evolve - but there will be devices used for gaming that people buy into their homes. They might not be connected to the television, and they definately will feature a controlling mechanism different from the game pads of past and present, but they are still standardized platforms for playing separately purchased games.
Having said this, I think that MS will drop first, maybe after seeing that the Ninth Generation is moving too far from their scope as a company. Sony will stay as long as gaming experience remains parallel with other home entertainment, so it will not drop before people stop buying gadgets. I don't see this happening if there is no worldwide disaster preventing the use of electronical appliances.
Nintendo would go on after this, figuring out more ways to play games if the electronics fails.
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