In the end, this is what will happen: Ukraine won't react with their military because they are far inferior to Russian forces. US and EU won't defend them military because it would be crazy to start a war against Russia only to defend Ukraine (let's be honest, if Russia invaded and ocupied them, nobody would move a single troop because of that).
US threatened them with economic sanctions. But they are alone in that since EU won't do it. They depend of the Russian natural gas and, in 2006, Russia already just closed the valves and let EU without gas just because they wanted to give a lesso to Ukraine (that gets a percentage of the gas sales profit, since the pipes pass through their territory). So sanctions won't help.
The problem is simply militar. It's similar to the China/North Korea situation. When NK started doing nuclear tests, the US wanted to intervene, basically the entire OTAN wanted it. China didn't want it. Why? Because if that happened, the OTAN would ocuppy the country. And it would become a militar base for the US in China's borderline. For China, it's better to have the crazy anti-US dictator there than an US militar base right in their backyard. They won't go as far as defending NK, but will try to stop any intervention. That is similar to Ukraine's situation. The new government is pro-US. Russia don't want to lose a coutry it influences that is right in their backyard. The recent US$ 1 B loan from US probably only made things worse. Putin know that Ukraine will become a closer ally to US and EU. So the new plan is to separate Crimea, so they will still have a militar base in the middle (Crimea is full of Russians anyway). They will simulate a full scale invasion just to go to the negotiation table in the end and declare Crimea an independent country. Of course, they will want some deal about the gas pipes, in a way they can't get screwed by Ukraine and maybe they will think in some things to make more difficult for Ukraine to get closer to US and EU.
| Danman27 said: Not really. The UNA is just a pawn of the US in most cases. They don't really have much power. The USA is the only country that's considered a super power by most scholars. Most believe that China, India, EU, and Russia may become super powers in the 21st century. |
UN is a pawn for the 5 security concil member. US started to want to end the North Korea problem, China vetoed it. Syria was the same thing but with Russian vetoing.
| Sharu said: BTW, Crimea parlament just made a desicion. 16th of March will be referendum, so people of Crimea wil decide, if they stay in Ukraine on join Russian Federation. |
That would be the most reasonable method.
