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Yeah, I don't think there are 260 million unique console owners. Especially with Wii, many of them had a PS360 as well after a while.

There is some merit to the idea that anything can happen. I look at products which changed sales momentum mid-gen, like Sonic the Hedgehog and Donkey Kong Country or Kinect. It's quite possible that one of the companies have a great game-changer on the way... though we haven't seen it yet.