^Being marked with one color on the political map doesn't really matter much these days, if smth I'd expect Crimea to be more like Abhkazia or South Ossetia. Plus speaking Russian matters practically nothing -- a good portion of Israel is speaking Russian, so what? :D De facto Russian is lingua franca for Ukraine, and I never seen a single Ukrainian who could, well, speak Ukrainian, in 9 cases of 10 it's "surzhik", a Russian dialect.
But what makes me doubt Crimea independence in near future is the postition of... Russia here, check this:
- Yanukovich has been granted political asylum over here.
- Yanukovich has released an official note calling it a revolt, claiming that current Ukrainian authorities lack legitimacy (kind of stating the obvious).
- Official MID (Russian Foreign Affairs) called Yanukovich a President.
- Yanukovich's arranging a press-conference soon.
Anyone would have considered him a political corpse by now (especially if you'er planning to cut Ukraine in pieces), but apparently Putin and Co have different opinion. I wonder why? He's certainly not a pro-Russian president, only braindead MSM considered him pro-Russian, while he truly was a more suitable person than Yuschenko at best, but certainly not a buddie for Moscow.
Anyway these games won't solve the problem that've started it all -- it's near default situation in Ukraine -- national currency (thanks to recent events for the most part) is going down fast, people are rushing for their money in banks, social welfare is nearing its death. So what "revolutionaries" have done first when they came to power? Check balance sheets and have started begging for money from EU, US and, of course, Russia. Under current circumstances they won't live till May (presidental elections). I doubt anyone, including Russia, would invest in current Ukraine simply for the sake of having... I'm not sure even what? It's a black hole. The situation requires stabliziation first and then maybe, possibly, some chance that rest of 15 bln credit line that Putin has opened for Ukraine might reach its target. Don't get me wrong there'd be a default regardless, but it might progress in a less violent way than it's going to now.
In light of all that -- what's the Yanukovich role here? Have no idea.
