Like I said before, over 50% market share is a certainty without question (probability >95%) but 80% market share is also practically impossible (probability <5%).
According to the calculated probability distribution, the market share among all three consoles will be between 54% and 68% . Below is the estimated market share among all three consoles first, then only among XB1 & PS4.
8the Generation Cumulative Market Share Watch
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=179057&page=1#
| PS4 - Cumulative Market Share | XB1 - Cumulative Market Share | |||||||||
| Week | Global | US | EU | Japan | Week | Global | US | EU | Japan | |
| ESTIMATE | 54-68% | 44-59% | 60-77% | 55-65% | ESTIMATE | 19-30% | 28-40-% | 12-23% | <6% | |
| 4-Jan-14 | 34.0% | 33.6% | 46.9% | 0.0% | 4-Jan-14 | 23.8% | 31.4% | 21.5% | 0.0% | |
| 11-Jan-14 | 34.6% | 34.0% | 47.6% | 0.0% | 11-Jan-14 | 23.9% | 31.5% | 21.4% | 0.0% | |
| 18-Jan-14 | 35.1% | 34.3% | 48.2% | 0.0% | 18-Jan-14 | 23.9% | 31.6% | 21.3% | 0.0% | |
| 25-Jan-14 | 35.6% | 34.7% | 48.7% | 0.0% | 25-Jan-14 | 23.9% | 31.7% | 21.3% | 0.0% | |
| 1-Feb-14 | 36.1% | 35.2% | 49.3% | 0.0% | 1-Feb-14 | 23.9% | 31.7% | 21.2% | 0.0% | |
| 8-Feb-14 | 36.6% | 35.5% | 49.9% | 0.0% | 8-Feb-14 | 23.9% | 31.6% | 21.0% | 0.0% | |
| 15-Feb-14 | 36.9% | 35.7% | 50.3% | 0.0% | 15-Feb-14 | 23.9% | 31.7% | 20.9% | 0.0% |
| WiiU - Cumulative Market Share | ||||
| Week | Global | US | EU | Japan |
| ESTIMATE | 10-20% | 10-20% | 10-20% | 25-35% |
| 4-Jan-14 | 42.2% | 35.0% | 31.6% | 100.0% |
| 11-Jan-14 | 41.5% | 34.5% | 31.0% | 100.0% |
| 18-Jan-14 | 41.0% | 34.1% | 30.4% | 100.0% |
| 25-Jan-14 | 40.5% | 33.6% | 30.0% | 100.0% |
| 1-Feb-14 | 39.9% | 33.2% | 29.5% | 100.0% |
| 8-Feb-14 | 39.5% | 32.8% | 29.1% | 100.0% |
| 15-Feb-14 | 39.2% | 32.6% | 28.8% | 100.0% |
XB1 vs PS4 Cumulative Market Share Watch
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178754&page=1
| XB1 & PS4 Only | XB1 & PS4 Only | |||||||||
| PS4 - Cumulative Market Share | XB1 - Cumulative Market Share | |||||||||
| Week | Global | US | EU | Japan | Week | Global | US | EU | Japan | |
| ESTIMATE | 67-76% | 55-65% | 75-85% | >90% | ESTIMATE | 24-33% | 35-45% | 15-25% | <10% | |
| 4-Jan-14 | 58.9% | 51.7% | 68.6% | - | 4-Jan-14 | 41.1% | 48.3% | 31.4% | - | |
| 11-Jan-14 | 59.2% | 51.9% | 69.0% | - | 11-Jan-14 | 40.8% | 48.1% | 31.0% | - | |
| 18-Jan-14 | 59.5% | 52.0% | 69.3% | - | 18-Jan-14 | 40.5% | 48.0% | 30.7% | - | |
| 25-Jan-14 | 59.8% | 52.3% | 69.6% | - | 25-Jan-14 | 40.2% | 47.7% | 30.4% | - | |
| 1-Feb-14 | 60.1% | 52.6% | 70.0% | - | 1-Feb-14 | 39.9% | 47.4% | 30.0% | - | |
| 8-Feb-14 | 60.5% | 52.9% | 70.4% | - | 8-Feb-14 | 39.5% | 47.1% | 29.6% | - | |
| 15-Feb-14 | 60.7% | 53.0% | 70.7% | 15-Feb-14 | 39.3% | 47.0% | 29.3% | - |
Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates
Regional Analysis (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 : 49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global => XB1 : 32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%
