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My PS3 uses ~350gb of my 500gb HDD
My PS4 uses ~50gb of my 500gb HDD

My expectations are 500gb will be borderline based on my typical buying habits of physical versus digital and size of my library. As long as it means I am not having to uninstall and re install game data like I did with initial 40gb on PS3 I will manage. The big x factor is PS+ which with sales and game trials could push the data quickly depending on how big games get.