Xbox One is going to fall lower and will remain there. Microsoft cannot sell anything in Japan. They were already a clear second choice in Europe. The only thing that helped them were dramatically disproportionate wins in North America. Now they won't even have that.
The second and much more important issue is that Xbox One is designed as an all or nothing solution. There isn't a way to pick it up as a cheap second console. There isn't a way to dabble with it or impulse buy it to do something with your buds and then forget about it later.
It demands to be the center of your home entertainment center. It has to have the Kinect working. The Xbox Live requirement is so restrictive that you can't even use it as a streaming box if you decide not to game or are waiting for something new then you still have to shell out that money every month will very little in return. You are either hardcore or you are gone and in this case the hardcore are clearly choosing PS4.
Nintendo is much smarter in this regard. It's quite clear the WiiU is $250 with pack in game. It has free online play. It is the perfect second choice this generation. It is backwards compatible with everything Wii so the value proposition is great for someone who has blown all their cash on their main console.
This just doesn't work with Microsoft. You have to spend $500 plus game plus Live for a year. When it drops lower, so will everyone else. The choice was to go head to head and either win or lose. They've lost.
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