- the generation time for wii U will be lower than the generation time for ps4/xbo. i would say 5 year for wiiU.
- Some think that market will shrink. Without wii casuals, the market will be surelly lower than 7th. I would bet in something between 6th and 7th gen market size.
So, your min wii U prediction could be You min wii U prediction times 5/7.
And you could calculate again the minimum with a lower estimated market size.
You have touched some valid points!
- The market will probably shrink, which I addressed in the update, and will further be updated later on.
- WiiU is indeed likely to live less than 7 years (or have a successor earlier). The reason why I have not address this one is that it's just too early. Well, the models can also be improved with additional complication but unless we know which direction to go exactly, keeping it simpler is usually a better policy. So for now, I'm not integrating it but as soon as I have a good idea, I will.
Also given that the wiiU will live 5 years, the 5/7x estimate sounds very plausible (so yes, a figure like 15-20 million in 4-5 years in not unlikely in case wiiU has a shorter life span).
Regional Analysis (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 : 49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global => XB1 : 32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%