Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles and Analysis of the Market

[freedquaker]

Tower said:

freedquaker said:

NobleTeam360 said:
PS4 is way to high.

The math and historical data is there, check for yourself. All the formulations and reasonings are provided. Everything makes perfect sense, regardless of how off it may seem or sound to you.

Just like everyone else, your predictions come down to your assumptions. You go into great detail about how exactly those assumptions will produce a certain result, and that is great, but it doesn't make your assumptions any more valid. I think the biggest flaw in your reasoning is that you assume that the ~80M or so that left the WII will move to the will move over to the PS4 and X1, but I don't this is true at all. If you were to change that assumption, your conclusions would look veru different, for the PS4 and X1.

I actually address that in the last tables, which assume the market will shrink by 40 million (from 240 million in 7 years to 200 million). Basically out of the 90 million Wii users (end of 2012), 40 million will exit the market and 50 million will either go buy a WiiU, or PS4 , XB1.

In 7th Gen (end of 2012)

HD Consoles : 150 million
Wii : 90 million
Total : 240 million

In 8th Gen (end of 2020, estimated), roughly

HD Consoles : 160-180 million
Wii : 20-40 million
Total : 200 million