Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles and Analysis of the Market

[freedquaker]

I applied basically the same extimates for XB1, with one caveat. Because X360 was early to the party and unrivalled at the time,

a) People simply had no choice so they went with X360

b) Many people waited till the PS3 was released, which SLOWED DOWN the first year sales of X360, which creates problems in comparison to XB1.

A good but simple and reasonable solution is to take year averages between the current and the following year, rather than the end of year results. This may create some problems in the short run, it usually works out just fine in the long run (a commonly applied method in economic forecasting). So here are the estimates for XB1 under similar conditions

Market Size shrinks by 17%, HD Console Share increases up to 80-90% range XB1 market share drops to 24-33% range.

 

 

		Size	0.83	0.83	0.83	0.83
		HD	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9
		XB1	0.24	0.33	0.24	0.33
	X360		HD=0.80 XB1=24	HD=0.80 XB1=33	HD=0.90 XB1=24	HD=0.90 XB1=33
2005	4,579,033	2013	2,442,151	3,357,958	2,747,420	3,777,702
2006	11,903,353	2014	6,348,455	8,729,125	7,142,012	9,820,266
2007	21,053,150	2015	11,228,347	15,438,977	12,631,890	17,368,849
2008	31,340,662	2016	16,715,020	22,983,152	18,804,397	25,856,046
2009	42,952,305	2017	22,907,896	31,498,357	25,771,383	35,435,652
2010	56,636,062	2018	30,205,900	41,533,112	33,981,637	46,724,751
2011	69,318,279	2019	36,969,749	50,833,404	41,590,967	57,187,580
2012	77,443,575	2020	41,303,240	56,791,955	46,466,145	63,890,949

 

This is completely based on the general market and X360 specific data from VGChartz; there are 2 main suggestions here.

a) XB1 will sell between 6.3 to 9.8 million at the end of this year

b) XB1 will sell between 41.3 to 63.9 million at the end of 2020