Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles and Analysis of the Market

[freedquaker]

Justagamer said:

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I agree with most of this post. You're a bit harsh about the other guys numbers, but I do like his methodology. But I do agree with what you're saying. No way ps4 out sells ps2, x1 around 55 million(if ms doesn't pull it's head out of its own ass), and wiiu around 15 million....

 

Let me guys introduce you a sound sales estimate here. Now below on the very left, there are the actual cumulative PS3 sales data, taken from VGChartz data base. On the right, there are 4 possible different scenarios extrapolated from this actual set. Here are a few assumptions, parameters.

a) I assumed that the market will shrink by 17% hence the number 0.83 (from 240 million to 200 million consoles to be sold over 7 years, due to a good chunk Wii crowd leaving the market). This number may be different but not too different.

b) Then I created a scenario where the HD consoles will make up between 80-90% of the market, creating two possible extreme examples, hence the numbers 0.8 & 0.9 corresponding the HD title.

c) Finally the PS4 market among HD Consoles only will range between 67-74%. This all creates a 4 combination output.

 

When you apply those 4 different scenarios for cumulative sales over 7 years, just take a look at the numbers that appear. You may crunch the numbers in anyway you like, Numbers don't lie.

 

		Size	0.83	0.83	0.83	0.83
		HD	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9
		PS4	0.67	0.74	0.67	0.74
	PS3		HD=0.80 PS4=67	HD=0.80 PS4=74	HD=0.90 PS4=67	HD=0.90 PS4=74
2006	1,252,040	2013	1,864,148	2,058,910	2,097,167	2,316,274
2007	9,194,799	2014	13,690,034	15,120,336	15,401,288	17,010,378
2008	19,095,804	2015	28,431,530	31,401,989	31,985,472	35,327,237
2009	31,835,593	2016	47,399,661	52,351,864	53,324,618	58,895,847
2010	45,595,160	2017	67,886,127	74,978,708	76,371,893	84,351,046
2011	60,758,573	2018	90,462,764	99,914,098	101,770,610	112,403,360
2012	73,357,818	2019	109,221,640	120,632,856	122,874,345	135,711,963
2013	80,614,472	2020	120,025,992	132,566,021	135,029,241	149,136,773

 

So basically, this predicts that PS4 will sell between 13.6 and 17 at the end of this year; and between 120 to 149 million at the end of 2020. You may ask the reason for discrepancy between this estimate and the original one. There are 2 reasons :

a) The previous estimate assumed constant market size, this one shrinks it by 17%

b) The previous estimate was based on 2005-2012 data, this one is based on 2006-2013, causing slight differences.

* By the way, I am aware that the first year results are off, that's expected due to short term supply deviations, which tend to smooth out over the long run.