freedquaker said:
First Xbox... XB1 will definitely lose market share (from 50% to a 24-33% share among HD consoles), I agree. However, the HD Consoles overall will gain market share against the Wii console from 60% to the 80-90% range. Assuming that the market size stays constant (which I doubt), the given range is what MATH tells me. The variation between 47.5 to 73.3 million is there because of those two ranges (80-90% for HD, 24-33% for XB1). Basically the same story for PS4. Now think about it to meaningfully compare it with the PS2 era. - XB1's competition is much more fierce than the competition from original Xbox but it's comparable to the Xbox & Gamecube combined. - The market is much larger than the PS2 era. - We are talking about a 7 year run. PS2 had sold 100 million when PS3 was released. 50+ sales happened after drastic price cuts. Assuming PS5 won't be released before 2020, PS4 has plenty of time to catch up! - PS4 will have sold about 6 million in 6 months, so 12 million / year is easily doable. This puts the totals to 60 million for 5 years, and 84 million for 7 years. However, the price cuts will happen! A 25% price cut will include a comparable amount of sales increase, so 2-3 years down the line, you can expect 15-16 million annual sales, which brings the totals to around 70 million in 5 years and 100 millions in 7 years. And that's the minimum because it hasn't even been released in Japan and some other countries and it has been heavily supply constrained. - WiiU is much weaker than Wii and if you read my ending note, I am estimating rather the low end of the given range (around 25 million or so), which is about 12%. Nintendo never did worse than that. Also price cuts will come, along with many AAA Nintendo titles. It will be the cheapest console all along. |
I really dont care about your percentages because it doesnt make sense. You expect the PS4 to sell 12 million a year for 6 years straight without a pricecut. HAHAHAHAAHAHAHA nice joke
Dude, PS4 will sell on average 12-13m a year WITH timely planned pricecuts, PS4 still costing 399 6 years from now might only sell 2 million.
PS4 will sell 100m in 7 years maximum but will not sell 55m like the PS2 after PS5 launches. PS2 only sold that much because PS3 was expensive and nobody was prepared to buy it.
What also makes sense is this:
Xbone will never ever sell 70 million. 360 will barely (if it ever reaches) 90m, Xbone will do 45-50m. 360 launched at a much cheaper price and Sony is dominating in every region, the only region it might get close is the USA. PS360 install base in USA: 70m
360: 45m
PS3: 25m
This gen it will be pretty close in America : 35m:30m for either party. Around 15m American gamers will move to PS4.
So Xbone will only manage to sell 40m in both the US and UK, and barely manage to sell 10-15m outside these 2 markets.
PS4 will not outdo PS2. If PS4 can do 160m, the Xbone will stop selling at 20m, simple as that. It'd mean all gamers moved over to PS4.
Another error you make: nobody will claim Wii's lost 100m big casual market, they're gone, this is why your percentages dont make sense. Wii install base was 80-85m full of casuals who didnt care for gaming and moved over to mobiles. Real Nintendo fanbase was closer to 10-15m.
The Wii U is selling 3m a year, this year it wont be better, maybe 4m tops. It only sold 49k in January.
Wii U will get a successor faster than other consoles, maybe as soon as 2017.
Essay Pro