Even with all the controversy around your numbers, I have to congratulate you by doing your estimations with a solid method and detailing the decisions you made in the process.
I agree that the difference between PS4 and One will widen. Right now, we only saw early adopters, that are pretty much price insensitive consumers, buying units. When these guys are done, and it's happening now, we will see the mass market that cares about pricing.
About your considerations of market size, I agree with you, market won't shrink. It would even throw if it wasn't by all casuals Wii got in 2008-2010 and lost to mobile. We saw the two biggest launches in history and that was for consoles way more expensive than the normal 300 dolars gold spot. Besides that, consoles are more mainstream now and emergent markets like the BRIC countries, that were always lagging behind in console adoption, now will be at full force buying these new devices.
Well, thank you for your valuable opinions. I am an economist, it's just fun and relaxing to apply my train of thought on hobby and fun stuff rather pure professional or academic stuff once in a while.
Also I always apply such methodologies instead of uttering my "gut" or "numerical wishes", as some tend to do. And it's true that my estimates are not necessarily accurate but the beauty of it is because each and every one of has a certain rational and formula behind it,
a) I can defend and reason with them
b) I can easily adjust & update them with the realities of the market
c) They are the expressions of the market realities and analytical breakdown of what's happening
Regional Analysis (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 : 49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global => XB1 : 32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%