Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles and Analysis of the Market

[freedquaker]

Turkish said:

Your estimates are very silly. Xbone can go up to 75m? PS4 up to 165m? 25-50m range for the WiiU?? Very laughable. PS4 wont outdo PS2. The Xbone will lose marketshare in the US and UK, it cannot do anything close to 70m. 360 will end up selling around 90m, I expect the Xbone to lose around half of the marketshare.

WiiU 25m minimum? Lol more like 15m is gonna be it's maximum, it's selling ~3m a year.

There is a bit of a misunderstanding here. You don't seem to have read it detail but let me a bit more clear here...

First Xbox... XB1 will definitely lose market share (from 50% to a 24-33% share among HD consoles), I agree. However, the HD Consoles overall will gain market share against the Wii console from 60% to the 80-90% range. Assuming that the market size stays constant (which I doubt), the given range is what MATH tells me. The variation between 47.5 to 73.3 million is there because of those two ranges (80-90% for HD, 24-33% for XB1).

Basically the same story for PS4. Now think about it to meaningfully compare it with the PS2 era.

- XB1's competition is much more fierce than the competition from original Xbox but it's comparable to the Xbox & Gamecube combined.

- The market is much larger than the PS2 era.

- We are talking about a 7 year run. PS2 had sold 100 million when PS3 was released. 50+ sales happened after drastic price cuts. Assuming PS5 won't be released before 2020, PS4 has plenty of time to catch up!

- PS4 will have sold about 6 million in 6 months, so 12 million / year is easily doable. This puts the totals to 60 million for 5 years, and 84 million for 7 years. However, the price cuts will happen! A 25% price cut will include a comparable amount of sales increase, so 2-3 years down the line, you can expect 15-16 million annual sales, which brings the totals to around 70 million in 5 years and 100 millions in 7 years. And that's the minimum because it hasn't even been released in Japan and some other countries and it has been heavily supply constrained.

- WiiU is much weaker than Wii and if you read my ending note, I am estimating rather the low end of the given range (around 25 million or so), which is about 12%. Nintendo never did worse than that. Also price cuts will come, along with many AAA Nintendo titles. It will be the cheapest console all along.