Outbid Microsoft? They don't need to do that. Really, all they need to do is show EA the NPD numbers, then offer some advertising and exposure incentives. Microsoft is the one that has to pony up large amounts of money to keep the franchise exclusive. Can Microsoft afford that? Absolutely. Would it be worth that much money? In terms of profit, probably not. In terms of trying to keep up with the PS4, they might decide the loss is worthwhile.
As for the contract, I doubt anyone here knows the terms. Could be limited with Microsoft trying to extend the duration. That would make the most sense. It might also be a case where EA or Microsoft are sitting in a "wait and see" stance because they think the terms will swing in their favor after the game launches.
