How short people's memories are.
Does everybody just not remember the first 1-2 years of the PS3's existence? If I recall correctly, it was frequently being outsold by the GBA. I remember a distinct period where like, over 6 weeks, the only game that released on the PS3 was a Pirates of the Carribbean tie-in title.
Meanwhile, the Wii was literally sold out consistently for at least half a year. To be honest, I cannot remember how the 360 was doing, but I think it was still outselling the PS3 on a weekly basis by quite some margin.
Point is... look how radically things can change over the course of the generation. To make any real predictions beyond a few months is just laughably stupid. It's the pretence of knowledge. To then go on and predict such extreme outcomes just moves it from laughably stupid, to pure moronic.
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I don't think Microsoft are very good competitors. I personally don't think they'd survive in a free market environment. Too much of their revenue comes from military, educational and other state contracts, and some inertia from their fantastic performance decades back in securing major corporate contracts.
To be fair, the evidence seems to be showing that neither Sony or Nintendo are fantastic, either. So there's that. But I personally don't see Microsoft being able to pull off a turnaround like Sony did, without major restructuring in the company (which may well happen - new CEO) (it also took heads rolling in the Playstation division to block the hole in that Titanic, too).
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