One thing to remember is that Wii got off to a stellar start and by the end of its cycle has barely attained 100 million consoles sold. Be wary of basing the selling potential of a system based on 3 months of sales and stating its ease of attaining certain goals. I doubt many people would have 3DS over 40 million right now after its first 3 months of sales. Or have the PS3 over 80 million after its first year of sales.
With that in mind, I don't think there is any possible way i could argue whether a system will reach or not reach 100 million, let alone 2. Too many variables. How many of the "new" users brought in by the Wii and 360 from the last generation will be retained in this generation? Will there be an expansion of new markets in Europe and Asia? How will Japan receive home consoles this generation after last generation showed domination by handheld platforms? And then I think the real key is the state of the American market where last generation it did a complete flip flop in the market share. Does that show instability in market leadership or have Nintendo and MS solidified a top brand?
I feel, though, if Nintendo is unable to compete in all 3 major markets with the Wii U, then one system will get to 100 million systems sold simply due to the failure of competition. But that is about all I would feel comfortable in predicting at such an early stage.
