Nintendo is going to be making consoles until the end of time. They've set themselves and their properties up as ICONS. The only way I can see them exiting the console race is after a series of failures which, I can't see happening. When they lose their stranglehold on the handheld market as well as sell horribly there, then maybe. And when no one buys there consoles or they don't feast off of ther 1st party games? Maybe we'll talk. But Save Luck For Heaven aka Nintendo is here to stay (yeah I'm they're my favorite so what?).
Sony I can't see them exiting for at least another 10-20 years honestly, maybe if their next system starts slow and tapers off. But the Ps3 is already starting to pick up steam, and they have also established themselves as sort of a modern "icon" Think of all the gamers that grew up during the PS1-Ps2 era, to them Sony is like Nintendo to us that grew up in the NES-SNES era, so they are pretty much solidfied.
Microsoft actually is the one company I could see going first, sure the 360 is pretty popular, but unless Microsoft can really bring it with there next console and GET RID OF THE HARDWARE issues, I see them always being a middle to the rear company in comparison to the other 2 (and I OWN both a 360 and WII), they've established the Halo brand and become sort of the system of choice for core- hardcore types (madden and halo junkies) but they would be first to go, and if I guessed I'd say withing the next 10-15 years.
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