Scenario 1-Mass Effect 2 gets released simultaneously. The PS3 version takes a hit in sales because no one is familiar with the story unless they also own a 360 and have played the original. 360 will take a very dominant position in sales.
Scenario 2-MS is paying EA to keep it off PS3. Likely considering Microsoft's history, but not very likely because...
Scenario 3-MS, knowing Mass Effect was a trilogy all along, secured the rights way back in the early development stages for all three. This is the most likely of scenarios, because MS would have been foolish not to have done this in the first place. It's common sense to lock all three down for exclusivity. Don't be surprised if they have a similiar deal with Silicon Knights for the Too Human trilogy. Thanks to Dark Requiem for bringing this up earlier.
Scenario 4-Timed exclusivity with PS3 version coming 6-12 months later. Bad choice. These timed exclusivity agreements don't make a whole lot of sense for the publisher because while they gain a payout, it's probably not as substantial as getting your series name on a competing console on day one. Here's how unsuccessful other timed exclusives and general time delays have done in the past:
Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
360=2.4 mil
PS3=650,000
Fight Night Round 3
360=1.66 mil
PS3=520,000
Grand Theft Auto 3/Grand Theft Auto Vice City
PS2=Over 26 mil
Xbox=2.2 mil for GTA Double Pack
There are exceptions to this rule. Capcom made a lot of money back from the Gamecube when they ported Killer 7, Viewtiful Joe and Resident Evil 4 to the PS2, but a massively higher amount of PS2 owners at the time probably had something to do with it. With the PS3 at a smaller userbase right now, and EA not being known for timed exclusivity, I would think it's more likely to see them taking money from Microsoft for total exclusivity rather than just 6-12 months of it.
Out of all of those, expect MS to have written the deal to keep Mass Effect on 360 and PC long before the first ever came out. EA wouldn't necessarily make public knowledge of that, so it would have to be assumed that may be the case if we don't see a Mass Effect on PS3 ever, or that MS drove a dumptruck of cash over.
Tag: Became a freaking mod and a complete douche, coincidentally, at the same time.
