haxxiy said:
In the short run, yes. In the long run, no... They would suffer economically, politicaly and even socially. Leaving EU would return burden to their economy involving trade and if EU was to disolve completelly then it would put a major hurdle on trade and economics, leaving EU will only give you short term benefit yet long term it will end up with far more problems than gains. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland are fine outside the EU - in fact, they are the three of the richest european countries right now, with their own currencies and with the added benefit of setting their own commercial laws and agreements. Because they are richest countries in Europe does not mean that it would have been hampered economically in EU, they would have had economical benefit if they were in Europe and if Noway and Iceland were in Europe then economical stability of EU would have been rock solid thus they would futher up solidify their own stability. Since they aren't in it, they economical well being depends on on a global scale primarily which is violatile, specially for Norway and all of these countries trade primarily with contries that are members of EU. Countries that are in EU that trade between them self have benefit because of relatively unified standards and less resources is needed for doing trades, less documents/paperwork needed to achieve goals. Besides, without France and the UK, what's left of the EU is a mostly non-dynamic, nuclear-less and aging economic bloc who would succumb to negative social dynamics and deflationary pressure before the 30's. Add Turkey and you have a perfect Mitteleuropa a hundred years late, except this time around with dying, unbalance3d populations and a matter of laughter instead of concern to both France and the UK... Now you are making me laugh by your narrow minded analysis that is not flexible to consider variable factors and reactions nor consider that you don't consider human factor. That would happen if EU was doing absolutelly nothing to counter the effect in case UK and France was to leave the EU and you still don't consider a lot of other variables and factors. Issues that you have mentioned are not permanent and they happen sooner or later and then its gone, its a cycle. EU would easily survive without UK since they are disposable and only France would cause some issues if they were to leave EU. Yet in the end UK and France would have more negative than positive effects, factors and possible reactions. If UK was to leave EU then Japan would almost completelly abandon them and trade routes would likely shift to France and in case France leaves then trade routes would shift to Spain and Italy. UK thanks to EU gets a lot of merchandise flowing trough them and rip of a substantial economical benefit. France would also put into difficult position economically in trade and agreements also social backlash, France's stability actually depends on EU in its roots and because of culture of France as Napoleon wanted to unite Europe and EU is in fact a dream come true for France. France leaving EU would might as well be collapse of France willingly. You need to remember that EU is primarily an economic bloc and if it collapse then whole Europe will collapse and chaos will erupt, it would cause an economical crash globally and USA and Russia may make moves to gain territory which in end could cause nuclear exchange and creation of World War 3. Other European countries have nuclear armarment and have capability and resources to produce them and make ICBM's if needed. France and UK would collapse under their own weight without EU, if you cut your pipeline of major incomes and resources then it is like intentionally chocking yourself to death and not allow yourself to get air/oxygen for your braint o work. Anyway USA is in more hectic state then EU will ever be... |
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