360 Sales Bet - Supply Issue and March - Right Forum this time

[bbsin]

Ok, there's two things I don't understand about the logic (of either sides) going into this bet.
gebx's side: Microsoft has said themselves that they are expecting low sales and supply issues for March, along with a possible price cut rumor floating around, how can you be so confident?
PS3 fans side: Sony JUST announced a MGS4 PS3 bundle for the U.S... don't you all think that will hurt sales since so many people are supposedly waiting for MGS4? Also, we all know that the 360 had some sort of supply constraint and MS plans to resupply, wouldn't that mean that sales already hit rock bottom and would ONLY increase?? How could you guys be so confident?

Anyways, this is actually a really entertaining bet, i think the numbers will be close and might even go two ways (VGchartz says 360 wins, NPD says PS3 wins). If gebx wins, he'll be the hero of every 360 fanboy on this site. I know this all for fun, but it's ridiculous how people are so confident given the many hitches that can ruin which ever side.