I'm going to guess between 27 and 32. We'll get Yoshi, Ness, Captain Falcon, and Jigglypuff, they've been there from the beginning, and probably Chrom for the traditional 2 Fire Emblem characters, Ganondorf (unless they choose a different Zelda villain), and another Star Fox character, most likely Falco but possibly one that they could make less cloney. We might see Diddy around the release of Tropical Freeze, and maybe Dixie if they're feeling generous. Namco might get a third party guest for helping to develop. Sheik will also probably be revealed later, but I don't count that as another character. Mr. Game and Watch I could see happening just because of what he represents for Nintendo, and Wario I could see happening since Ashley is already confirmed as an assist trophy. Aside from that, they might have a few new characters they're hiding. Everyone seems to think the wrestling stage means Little Mac, and a lot of people are speculating Miis, which after Wii Fit Trainer wouldn't surprise me. The only other major franchise that I could see getting a character would be something to represent X. Add all that together, and you'd still not have more than Brawl, but we won't see all of this, these are only a few possibilities I see. I'm with OP, I expect less than 30.
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