A price drop is bad business for MS because only English speaking countries will have a meaningful reaction towards this. The continental European or Japanese or elsewhere in the non-English speaking world, this will have small to negligible effects. In NA, UK and to some extent, other English speaking countries, we'll see some shift towards XB1 but the only country where XB1 has a chance to reach 50% parity is US. Mark my words.
Edit : A price drop this early, is never a good sign, and usually interpreted as an omen by consumers
a) The early buyers feel that they were screwed.
b) The late buyers may lose confidence.
So the safe bet is to price discriminate, release a "cut-down" or "budget" version as an alibi to decrease the price. So a digital-only (without bluray) console might be a solution to slash $100 although the drive itself costs much less than that (around $20-25, I believe).
Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates
Regional Analysis (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 : 49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global => XB1 : 32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%
