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it depends on 3 things:

1) how much money did MS pay for the IP. the larger the sum the better for epic.
2) how well does the next gears sell. if it flops epic got off well, it a huge success maybe epic got screwed.
3) how desperate is BlackTusk in need of an existing IP to mask their growing pains of being a new studio. even a mediocre gears is better than creating another too human.

 

..but yes, i think epic wanted MS to think they would take the IP to playstation to drive up it's value.