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Whoever thinks that realistic games don't do well on Nintendo systems fail to remember Goldeneye and perfect dark. There was a time when Nintendo survived off only Itself and Rare and the N64 sold 30+ million on the backs of nintendo and Rare. I don't know if wii u will even hit 30 million. 

If Nintendo doesn't try to tap into the western market It would be hard to see wii u reach even 20 million