I would say at best it will be 55%xbox1 owners to 45% ps4 owners, depending how 2014 and 2015 turns out it may get better or worse for either company over time (in the sense that the North American market is not in the pocket of either at the moment, which is pretty good for Sony).
When making predictions we should remember that:
- Games get delayed and/or cancelled
- Teams change and sometimes a great team screw up
- MS has mostly new studios that are not proven yet (they probably hired people who lost their job in this industry not too long ago, so they may be run by experienced people)
- Most of Sony's studios have not announced anything about their next gen projects yet, which means Sony is taking their time (they probably enjoy the free hype they get now as well as all the good will)
- The gaming press is oblivious to the obvious advantage of the PS4 compared to the XB1, loosing credibility at every chance they get, some people bought XB1s thinking that their machine could hold on its own compared to the PS4...
and Halo + Gears were given to new teams (halo before Halo 4) ... these franchises will not be the same as before, which may pull new people in as well as pull current fans away from the franchise... Bungie now does Destiny, Epic.. I don't know what they are up to, but it will not be Gears, and likely not even exclusive to the xb1, it's safe to assume that these new games all run better on the PS4 in one way of the other...
