It's Bayonetta 2 because the second game will always be compared to the first and it's going to get nowhere near. It will be lucky if it moves 1/3 as many copies. If Sega didn't want to greenlight the sequel when the first sold 1M, then there is no way Bayonetta 2 is going to turn a profit.
The thing is, Nintendo desperately needs the game to perform well in order to show third-parties. You can bet publishers will be watching with a high degree of interest. Nintendo needs to spend some cash on advertising--however, I have a hunch they won't.
Hyrule Warriors might not do well. Honestly, the people who like those games will have a PS3 and all the Warriors games they can handle. It might have modest enough expectations that keep it from being a failure, though, and as an experiment, it might even be a success.
As true flops go, I'm going to say The Crew. I think it's going to fail to find an audience.
