A 50% drop in the Playstation fanbase over the next generation in Japan? Thats almost unheard of, the only system to have ever saw such a huge drop was SNES -> N64 (fell around 66%), and that was mainly due to the introduction of new competition and the loss of practically every popular 3rd party franchise. Sony already has FF and well, nearly every other 3rd party franchise that sold decently in the bag or PS3, but the big question mark at this point is Dragon Quest. I cant really comment on the Wii, i don't believe it will take off in the same manner the DS has, but i do believe it will do better than Gamecube. A 250% increase? That may be a bit exaggerated.