Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

[Nirvana_Nut85]

Michael-5 said:

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

It's not even that there were ridiculous articles made, it's the fact that people were actually agreeing with the nonesense.

I did not misunderstand good sir! I wrote North America is only 25% less then the number of Vita's in Japan, which is the same thing. You could be right and combined N.A/ EU sales could be greater but that would probably still only put it little over a mill which would not be very well for an FF game.

68% is a nice boost, but I believe they were referring to UK as it was MCV who reported the data. When the increase is only a matter of a few thousand units, it is a lot less impressive. For example when Nintendo reported a 340% increase from October -November. It sound great but then you look at the actually numbers and all you can do is shake your head.

Uncharted probably increased sales as the game is stellar but as for profits that depends. Sony usually sells their hardware at a loss. Nintendo followed trend  this generation as well. Now, I realize the profit margin and cost of console vs handheld is different but if the Wii U will it's 5.5 million sold and 19.54 mill units of software is not enough to make a profit to cover the cost of those losses, than is Vita's 7.3 million with it's 19.53 million units able to? I guess without the act numbers for hardware vs Sony's profit margin on handheld games we'll never know.

12-15 million lifetime is a very reasonable estimate for the VIta, I cannot argue with that. The question is will Sony end up replacing it prior to it reaching those numbers if the sales trend continues. We all thought the people claiming Wii U would sell under 10 mill it's first year were crazy. The shitt thing is it turned out they were right and alot of people in this thread who made belligerant remarks are forgetting that (Thank you for being civil).

Nintendo has the possibility of surpassing GC (not by much) due to the mass market appeal that MK and Smash Bros has gained over the years. The only question with that is if Wii U has not completely lost relevancy by that point/ they finally begin to properly market the console and if they bundle each game for next holiday season. (another $50 price drop would help also).

You wrote "I do not see  how FFX will sell on par or better with a smaller userbase of 25%" Anyway, you get what I mean though. 1 million for a Final Fantasy remake on a handheld is actually pretty good. Below are the numbers all previous FF remakes have done in the past

1.19 million - FF I & II (GBA)
1.17 million - FF IV (DS)
1.11 million - FF Tactics (PSP)
0.61 million - FF IV (GBA)
0.57 million - FF I (PSP)
0.50 million - FF IV (PSP)
0.47 million - FF II (PSP)

In 5/7 of these cases the game also sold more units in USA alone.

Also in Japan the best 3 selling FF remakes are

FFIII - 1.07 million
FFIV - 0.62 million
FFT - 0.30 million

So to sell over 0.5 million is good for an FF game. Even if the game sold only 0.1 million outside of Japan, the game still generates a profit to sell.

As for the PSV/PS4 bundle, what countries does MCV track? outside of Japan Vita's numbers weren't that low, and regardless. A 68% boost is still a 68% boost. As for the WiiU, November is always a much bigger month then October, and it did have Super Mario 3D World which did a world of good for Nintendo.

For Uncharted, I'm pretty sure the Vita & WiiU are sold at a profit now, and I doubt Uncharted for Vita was sold at a loss. 1 million is not bad for a handheld game.

As for the future, I don't think Sony will discontinue the Vita, not for a few years. As for the WiiU, it could top Gamecube sales, but only because a consoles lifetime now is longer. Gamecube sold about 6 million during its 3rd fiscal year, I don't think WiiU will see those numbers. WiiU sales have already crashed, and are only doing 10% better then in 2013 (53k for this week, 48 k for the same week last year). Overall I do expect a good boost from Mario Kart and Smash Bros, but 6 million would mean a 100% growth (sold 3 million last year) and the most I see is a 33-66% growth (4-5 million).

However, since peoples comments on WiiU have brought you down, here is an article to cheer you up. http://ca.ign.com/articles/2014/01/17/does-it-really-matter-if-the-wii-u-fails

Two points I want to mention with this article. 1. Wii & DS generated such a large profit, Nintendo could continue developing and selling consoles at a loss for 20-30 years without issue. They have 10 billion in the bank.... 2. Gamecube & N64 were lolw volume consoles, but weren't the games still awesome? Unlike Sony and the Vita, Nintendo supports all their consoles well, even if sales are meh.

You make good points in regards to the FFX sales, I was just expecting much better 1st week figures, even if the Vita does have a smaller install base. Considering FFX is more of a legacy title, it is sort of expected to do better than the previous remakes, hence why I would consider it more of a failure if it only sold on par with the previous entries. 

As for MCV, I believe that is the UK, which only say an increase of several thousand units per week with the PS4 release. Again, it's a boost but not an impressive one in my opinion.

Wii U is still being sold as a loss and the software is clearly not making up the difference as per the financial loss that Nintendo is estimating for it's fiscal year. I'm sure Uncharted itself made a profit for the developer and yes 1 million is reasonable for protable sales, my only question is that is the Vita still being sold at a loss itself and are software sales significant enough overall in order to turn a profit itself for Sony vs what the are losing. 

Your estimates are fair on the Wii U, 6 million would be a stretch but it they managed another 5 million (we'll have to see if MK/SB are still relevant to the average consumer), that would at least create a comfortable enough install base to start driving decent enough sales that some 3rd parties may decide to start releasing the odd title here and there. I'm not necessarily down about articles/ threads etc. I'm more annoyed if anything. Therefore these recent Sony threads I've created (GT6 fail/PSV)are more along the lines of trying to annoy certain people back (the Nintendo doom and gloomers). The funny thing is, they swarm like flies on shit when it comes to the Nintendo one's but are nowhere to be found when there is a negative Sony thread.

P.S I'm not a huge Keza fan but I have to admit that was a well written/insight article (then again, it could just be that I have my fanboy glasses on!)