for a while I was very sure that it would happen. Then this year came and it did over a million less than I thought it would this year. I was thinking it would have done close to 10, then this year 7.
For it to get that many it would need to average 6.5 million a year for 3 years if it sells through December 2016
5 million a year for 4 years if through 2017
and 4 a year for 5 if through 2018
The ps1 and 2 dominated there generations and were pretty much the only one getting support when the new gens started. ps3 might have a few markets where it was in first but it's not going to be the sole legacy console in major markets. How much space can be used for all these systems? Last gen had 5 systems sell over 80 million. There isn't room for those and the 5 new ones. There was barely enough for the last 5 and the ps2. often places had the ps2 taking over psp or ps3 space. I don't see ps3 and xbox360 lingering around 3 years more in most markets.
So unless the ps3 takes off in some emerging market and suddenly the year over year declines slow significantly. It will probably end up between 5 and 10 million short.
