Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

[Nirvana_Nut85]

Michael-5 said:

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

Michael-5 said:

I have not heard of a single analyst claiming WiiU will be discontinued in 2015, never mind "a lot." Could you please show me a link to an article where you read this because if you want to apply this logic to Vita I would like to see something.

The number of Vita's in North America is only 25% less then the number of Vita's in Japan, where PSP was about 1:1 in both territories. It's very possible that FFX will sell on par, or better, in NA as it would in Japan. Add in Europe and it's pretty much guarenteed that FFX will sell more units and push more consoles outside of Japan then inside of it.

Killzone was a FPS on a handheld. Traditionally FPS's don't sell well on handhelds, and Sony knew they were taking a loss when they prodiced this game. God of War, Uncharted GA 2, and Gran Turismo on the other hand will not be sold at a loss, even if released in 2015.

As for Uncharted: Golden Abyss, it wasn't even developed by Naughty Dog, it was developed by Bend Studio, and it was their best selling game ever (sold 33% more then their next best selling game - Syphon Filter: The Omega Stream). How did this not turn a record profit for the studio? It's very likely that they will make another PSV exclusive.

I think the Vita would surprise everyone if it sold under 12 million lifetime. You don't think Sony will push the system, even after it's been replaced, like they have for all their other consoles? Then why did they make a new marketing campaign last fall and bundle the Vita with the PS4 (which I read boosted sales a good margin).?

There are quite a few articles and some analysts who are either calling  for/ claiming /or stating that the Wii U should be discontinued soon, which if that that is the case, the same logic should easily be applied to Vita.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/11/10/nintendo-could-be-forced-to-discontinue-the-wii-u/

http://mynintendonews.com/2013/11/10/investment-site-says-nintendo-could-be-forced-to-discontinue-the-wii-u-next-year/

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-01-17-nintendo-should-get-out-of-the-wii-business-pachter

I do not see  how FFX will sell on par or better with a smaller userbase of 25% when that number is continuing to expand as Vita  N.A weekly numbers pale in comparison to Japan. 

While I am aware that FPS are not system sellers for handhelds, I don't believe that they were expecting such mediocre sales for Killzone, when the terrible Black Ops Declassified is nearing almost 900K. The problem with the games you mentioned is that they still would have a significant enough dev cost. When a launch game like Uncharted sells so poorly compared to expectations and has to be hevily bundled to reach 1 mill. That speaks volumes. Unless you are aware or have some statistics for dev costs because with the amount of polish that Golden Abyss had, it doesn't seem likely that a significant profit was made from it.

As for the Vita bundle I don't beleive it increased sales that greatly, unless there are some statistics you can provide for this? Also from what I recall the price point wasn't very attractive as in the UK for example there was only a $10 discount when purchasing the bundle. It's not that I do not believe that it cannot sell more than 11 million. This thread is about the possibility of it being discontinued if current sales trends continue. Plus it's partial revenge for all the Nintendo doom and gloom articles :)

Wow about those WiiU articles, but I think you mentioned it as well, you also think it's unlikely.

As for FFX, you misread, the NA userbase is 75% as large as Japan (25% less). Even if it doesn't sell as well in USA as it does in Japan, the combined USA/EU number will be greater then Japan.

As for Golden Abyss, I can't find anything saying it generated a profit, but it cost a lot less to develop then a regular Uncharted game, and even if they don't make a profit off the software, it's very likely that the boost in hardware sales did generate a profit. As for developing a God of War or whatever game for Vita, development costs are probably small. If they weren't Sly Cooper, PSASBR, and Dragons Crown would not have been PS3/PSV releases.

As for the Vita-PS4 bundle, the figure is a 68% increase in PSV sales (for USA I assume) - http://ca.ign.com/articles/2013/12/19/ps4-launch-boosts-ps-vita-sales

Either way anything can happen, but don't be surprised if Vita ends up with 12-15 million lifetime. P.S. I might be on a limb out here, but I'm expecting WiiU to get Gamecube level sales. I do think sales will explode when Mario Kart or Wii Sports releases, and if not, I'm going to look forward to a lot of great AAA Nintendo games, just like the Gamecube and N64 had.

It's not even that there were ridiculous articles made, it's the fact that people were actually agreeing with the nonesense.

I did not misunderstand good sir! I wrote North America is only 25% less then the number of Vita's in Japan, which is the same thing. You could be right and combined N.A/ EU sales could be greater but that would probably still only put it little over a mill which would not be very well for an FF game.

68% is a nice boost, but I believe they were referring to UK as it was MCV who reported the data. When the increase is only a matter of a few thousand units, it is a lot less impressive. For example when Nintendo reported a 340% increase from October -November. It sound great but then you look at the actually numbers and all you can do is shake your head.

Uncharted probably increased sales as the game is stellar but as for profits that depends. Sony usually sells their hardware at a loss. Nintendo followed trend  this generation as well. Now, I realize the profit margin and cost of console vs handheld is different but if the Wii U will it's 5.5 million sold and 19.54 mill units of software is not enough to make a profit to cover the cost of those losses, than is Vita's 7.3 million with it's 19.53 million units able to? I guess without the act numbers for hardware vs Sony's profit margin on handheld games we'll never know.

12-15 million lifetime is a very reasonable estimate for the VIta, I cannot argue with that. The question is will Sony end up replacing it prior to it reaching those numbers if the sales trend continues. We all thought the people claiming Wii U would sell under 10 mill it's first year were crazy. The shitt thing is it turned out they were right and alot of people in this thread who made belligerant remarks are forgetting that (Thank you for being civil).

Nintendo has the possibility of surpassing GC (not by much) due to the mass market appeal that MK and Smash Bros has gained over the years. The only question with that is if Wii U has not completely lost relevancy by that point/ they finally begin to properly market the console and if they bundle each game for next holiday season. (another $50 price drop would help also).