Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

[Nirvana_Nut85]

Michael-5 said:

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

Michael-5 said:

With that logic WiiU would be dead by 2015 as well. Both the Vita and WiiU opened to great sales in their debut month/month, but then sudddenly fell. Vita grew from 2012-2013, end of story.

Your numbers give a bias to 2012 because you include PSV's launch (in 2011), and omit FFX week in 2013.

Only 2 FF's have sold more in NA over Japan? 4 of the 7 localized Final Fantasy's for PSP did better in NA then Japan (Crisis Core, FF1, FFII, and FF Tactics). Don't kid yourself.

You're arguement is extremely bias and heavily relies on Vita droping in Japan despite trends showing that Vita has sold more month over month for every month in 2012 (except June and September because Persona and Ys release in 2012 during those months).

Even without a major release from Sony, Vita will outsell the Game Gear, no problem. However it's very likely that Sony will release a God of War, Gran Turismo or a second Uncharted and that will guarentee it. You're arguement of development costs is also flawed because like Killzone, God of War can use the PS3 engine, and same for Uncharted and Gran Turismo. Development costs are low to make Vita games off existing engines.

According to alot of analysts and "apparent" experts on this site ( I say that with a heavy amount of sarcasm) Wii U will be discontinued by 2015! Therefore the same logic can obviously be applied to VIta. 

You cannot claim my way of presenting numbers are biased but state that yours are not. If sales from  Dec 13th - Dec 14 have a significant increase (more than 15% YoY) then I will agree that the Japan argument is invalid. However, I do not beleive that if the current drops remain in E.U/N.A and with this year being the peak year for Japan, that Sony would continue production with such little sales which is why I created this thread about the possibility of PSVita being discontinued before sales reach 11 million. I will admit that I stand corrected on the FF N.A vs Japan, however, PSP had a larger install base in  N.A than Japan whereas it is the opposite this time around with PS Vita (24% less). With the lack of sales, I do not forsee the N.A release matching Japan sales.

Development costs argument is not flawed if the software has difficulty reaching 1 million units. Killzone has several hundred thousand at this point in sales. Do you believe it has turned a profit? Also the Vita needs strong software sales in order to make it profitable, which is hasn't. Their losses are more than likely continuing to produce each console due to this. Uncharted is Sony's (correct  me if I'm wrong) 2nd biggest selling franchise when you factor in sales per game and that only managed 1 million while being heavily bundled after. Gran Turismo would sell decently but with the amout of time polyphony takes to develop a game, would the sales be enough to give them a decent profit margin? 

The Vita could surprise everyone and end up with 15mill sales before being discontinued, however as stated in my argument, I do not beleive that it is out of left field to see it being discontinued before it manages 11 mill. Unless, Sony are willing to further burn money and spend an enormous amount in remarketing it, which I don't believe they will.

I have not heard of a single analyst claiming WiiU will be discontinued in 2015, never mind "a lot." Could you please show me a link to an article where you read this because if you want to apply this logic to Vita I would like to see something.

The number of Vita's in North America is only 25% less then the number of Vita's in Japan, where PSP was about 1:1 in both territories. It's very possible that FFX will sell on par, or better, in NA as it would in Japan. Add in Europe and it's pretty much guarenteed that FFX will sell more units and push more consoles outside of Japan then inside of it.

Killzone was a FPS on a handheld. Traditionally FPS's don't sell well on handhelds, and Sony knew they were taking a loss when they prodiced this game. God of War, Uncharted GA 2, and Gran Turismo on the other hand will not be sold at a loss, even if released in 2015.

As for Uncharted: Golden Abyss, it wasn't even developed by Naughty Dog, it was developed by Bend Studio, and it was their best selling game ever (sold 33% more then their next best selling game - Syphon Filter: The Omega Stream). How did this not turn a record profit for the studio? It's very likely that they will make another PSV exclusive.

I think the Vita would surprise everyone if it sold under 12 million lifetime. You don't think Sony will push the system, even after it's been replaced, like they have for all their other consoles? Then why did they make a new marketing campaign last fall and bundle the Vita with the PS4 (which I read boosted sales a good margin).?

There are quite a few articles and some analysts who are either calling  for/ claiming /or stating that the Wii U should be discontinued soon, which if that that is the case, the same logic should easily be applied to Vita.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/11/10/nintendo-could-be-forced-to-discontinue-the-wii-u/

http://mynintendonews.com/2013/11/10/investment-site-says-nintendo-could-be-forced-to-discontinue-the-wii-u-next-year/

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-01-17-nintendo-should-get-out-of-the-wii-business-pachter

I do not see  how FFX will sell on par or better with a smaller userbase of 25% when that number is continuing to expand as Vita  N.A weekly numbers pale in comparison to Japan. 

While I am aware that FPS are not system sellers for handhelds, I don't believe that they were expecting such mediocre sales for Killzone, when the terrible Black Ops Declassified is nearing almost 900K. The problem with the games you mentioned is that they still would have a significant enough dev cost. When a launch game like Uncharted sells so poorly compared to expectations and has to be hevily bundled to reach 1 mill. That speaks volumes. Unless you are aware or have some statistics for dev costs because with the amount of polish that Golden Abyss had, it doesn't seem likely that a significant profit was made from it.

As for the Vita bundle I don't beleive it increased sales that greatly, unless there are some statistics you can provide for this? Also from what I recall the price point wasn't very attractive as in the UK for example there was only a $10 discount when purchasing the bundle. It's not that I do not believe that it cannot sell more than 11 million. This thread is about the possibility of it being discontinued if current sales trends continue. Plus it's partial revenge for all the Nintendo doom and gloom articles :)