Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

[Nirvana_Nut85]

Michael-5 said:

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

Michael-5 said:

Your arguement is also hypothetical. You're expecting sales to drop 30% when they grew nearly 100% in their largest territory (Japan - 438k in 2011, 670k in 2012, 1,209k in 2013). Plus in Japan, there are a lot of great games releasing in 2014, so..... It's unfair to assume a WW drop.

Loose too much money? This is hypothertical because Sony has always supported their consoles, even after they were replaced (GT6 could have brought more revenue on the PS4)

As for FF sales, you're also wrong here. FF typically sells better or at least on par with Japan in North America. Crisis Core sold 150% better in North America then Japan, and Worldwide it sold nearly 300% as much.

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FFX is going to be big for outside of Japan. FFXII will be big for every region. Soul Sacrifice Delta, Freedom Wars, Disgaea 4, Sword Art Online, etc will push Japanese system sales too.

I'm going on the basis of Dec launch date to the same sales week in Dec 12 and then comparing Dec 12 to December 13 which provides two full years of console sales in Japan. My numbers are not incorrect as they are giving full sales years. 

There is a difference between releasing a title late into a consoles life when there is an 80 mill plus userbase that will result in several million sales that will result in profit vs a dying handheld that is not a sigificant part of their business. They are not going to throw away money.

Only 2 FF's have sold more in N.A than JAP. The odds do not favour FFXHD making a significant impact.

I don't disagree with those games moving systems in Japan. I just do not believe it will be in a significant enough way and at most wee will see 1.5 million sold in Jap Dec13- Dec 14 while E.U and N.A become almost non existant which will lead to Sony stopping production by late 2015 allowing for the possibility of sales being less than gamegear.

With that logic WiiU would be dead by 2015 as well. Both the Vita and WiiU opened to great sales in their debut month/month, but then sudddenly fell. Vita grew from 2012-2013, end of story.

Your numbers give a bias to 2012 because you include PSV's launch (in 2011), and omit FFX week in 2013.

Only 2 FF's have sold more in NA over Japan? 4 of the 7 localized Final Fantasy's for PSP did better in NA then Japan (Crisis Core, FF1, FFII, and FF Tactics). Don't kid yourself.

You're arguement is extremely bias and heavily relies on Vita droping in Japan despite trends showing that Vita has sold more month over month for every month in 2012 (except June and September because Persona and Ys release in 2012 during those months).

Even without a major release from Sony, Vita will outsell the Game Gear, no problem. However it's very likely that Sony will release a God of War, Gran Turismo or a second Uncharted and that will guarentee it. You're arguement of development costs is also flawed because like Killzone, God of War can use the PS3 engine, and same for Uncharted and Gran Turismo. Development costs are low to make Vita games off existing engines.

According to alot of analysts and "apparent" experts on this site ( I say that with a heavy amount of sarcasm) Wii U will be discontinued by 2015! Therefore the same logic can obviously be applied to VIta. 

You cannot claim my way of presenting numbers are biased but state that yours are not. If sales from  Dec 13th - Dec 14 have a significant increase (more than 15% YoY) then I will agree that the Japan argument is invalid. However, I do not beleive that if the current drops remain in E.U/N.A and with this year being the peak year for Japan, that Sony would continue production with such little sales which is why I created this thread about the possibility of PSVita being discontinued before sales reach 11 million. I will admit that I stand corrected on the FF N.A vs Japan, however, PSP had a larger install base in  N.A than Japan whereas it is the opposite this time around with PS Vita (24% less). With the lack of sales, I do not forsee the N.A release matching Japan sales.

Development costs argument is not flawed if the software has difficulty reaching 1 million units. Killzone has several hundred thousand at this point in sales. Do you believe it has turned a profit? Also the Vita needs strong software sales in order to make it profitable, which is hasn't. Their losses are more than likely continuing to produce each console due to this. Uncharted is Sony's (correct  me if I'm wrong) 2nd biggest selling franchise when you factor in sales per game and that only managed 1 million while being heavily bundled after. Gran Turismo would sell decently but with the amout of time polyphony takes to develop a game, would the sales be enough to give them a decent profit margin? 

The Vita could surprise everyone and end up with 15mill sales before being discontinued, however as stated in my argument, I do not beleive that it is out of left field to see it being discontinued before it manages 11 mill. Unless, Sony are willing to further burn money and spend an enormous amount in remarketing it, which I don't believe they will.