I rate the chance at 15%. That is to say I am 85% certain that the Wii install base is mostly people who aren't invested in being mulch-generational console owners. But there is a 15% chance that once Wii U hits the Wii's launch price I'll be proven wrong and all those first time console buyers who bought Wii will suddenly decide they do want to have a nexgen experience after all. Given PS3=PS2/2 , roughly, then if Wii U can pull off another PS3 they are looking at about a max of 50M in sales. At this stage that would be an amazing end result for Nintendo.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
