Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

[Nirvana_Nut85]

JoeTheBro said:

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

It is completely fine that you disagree with me, and I would disagree that your better at numbers. We all can manipulate numbers to make the appearance that they look better than they actually are. As I explained earlier if you go by the launch date to the same week ending the following year (Dec 17th 2011- Dec 16th 2012) which is 1 full year since availability the Vita moved 1.07mill. From Dec 16th 2012 - Dec 13th 2013 it sold 1.15 mill which as I explained earlier is only a 7% increase YoY .

Unfortunately we can only guestimate at this point for E.U & N.A as we are not in the 3rd week of February but lets use current numbers to make an asssumption. From 1 full year after launch E.U numbers were 1.57 mill, since then it has only moved an additional 810k. Now lets be generous and say it manages and and average of 40k per week, for 7 weeks following bring it to  1.09mill for it's 2nd full year since launch. That is a decline of 31%. Bring it over to North America where the vita's first full year on the market since launch is 1.24 mill. Using the same formula as last time I am going to be generous and say the Vita averages 30k per week for the next 7 weeks. That would only bring the 2nd year total from launch to 650K or a 45% decline from the previous year.

How I came to the initial 30% sales decline in one of my originating arguments was due to including the the 2 weeks of Japan launch in 2011 (in my first year total) as N.A & EU did not launch until late Feb. So including the 2 weeks in December with the vita's first full year, compared to it's second year, we saw a 30% decline.

Either way you look at it there is a plausibility that the Vita could be discontinued before it reaches 11 million. That's not to say that companies stop releasing software, especially if the attach rate ends up high and profits are made. I believe that alot of Sony fans are just being way to optimistic given the data provided and if it does manage to pass the GameGear in sales, then it won't be by a significant amount.

Thanks for a mostly good response :)

The reason why our numbers are different is because you're starting your year in the mid of Dec, instead of just going for the 52 weeks in 12 and 13. The huge difference is from the fact you're including the Vita's launch in 2012 while I'm not. It sold a ton of units for the first week which is throwing off your comparison. An easy way to show this is with this chart: http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Japan&start_year=2010&end_year=2013&console=PSV

You're throwing in the launch December for 2012 and removing half of a great December for 2013. Horribly misleading way to do it. Your stats give you just a 7% increase yoy, while for the month of December it was up 274%. For the last 6 months of the year it was up 134%. For the full year of 2013 it was up 92%. Yes we can all manipulate numbers to make them say what we want, but I don't have to. Every way you look at it, except yours, shows a huge YOY increase.

In the US and EU, I again went 12 verse 13, not first 52 weeks verse second 52. It made my comparison much harsher on Vita than it should have, but I wasn't going to argue that the Vita isn't dropping fast in America and going nowhere in Europe. My point was that Japan alone makes your "it's past its peak year and going down 30% yearly" argument wrong. In the west that certainly looks to be true, but in Japan it's making a comeback.

It's going to easily pass GameGear in lifetime sales, and has a good chance in doing it this year. I think you're just being way to pessimistic ;)

My argument and the way I presented my numbers is not necessarily wrong. I recall many a doom and gloom article in November that provided first full year numbers for the Wii U. I also believe there were threads pertaining to sales of Wii U's first year on this site as well one it had reached it's first full year on the market. It seem figures however are subjective when it comes to a person's console of choice. I stick by the figures I've posted and the possible outcomes I've drawn.

I feel it is much more of a fair comparison to go from launch week to the same week ending the following year and count that as yearly sales. I also provided two methods that do not show an overall increase. Are they a bit manipulative? Of course they are. Does that necessarily mean they are incorrect? Not really.Unfortunately we're just going to have to wait this out in order to determine whether or not my estimates are as insane as some of you claim