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@Tombi. Wow that's a tough bet actually.... although I suppose you will have to wait till the Japan release of GTA to see what happens (unless it is obvious beforehand)

I mean first month for SSBB is probably going to end up being 5-6 million.

assuming you are using 4 weeks as your base for first month:
SSBB
Japan was just over 1.38 million.
America looks like it might turn out to be near 3 million if supply is ok.
Europe will definately get at least 1 million in the first 4 weeks... possibly near 1.5.

GTA
America will likely see 3 millon+ (I am unsure of how high it could be)
Europe will see about 2/3rds of America.
Japan- about 200k perhaps

unless it gets phenomenal hype, Japans 200k may be the deciding factor.
personally I would favour GTAIV to be the victor... but SSBB has suprised me so far.