Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

[Nirvana_Nut85]

JoeTheBro said:

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

JoeTheBro said:

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

When I was giving the 30% figure I was being generous. Historically, once the decrease begins for a console it does not tend to stop. There are annomalies but I do not beleive the PS Vita will be one of them. 

Your Japan numbers are incorrect as well my friend. From Dec 17th 2011- Dec 16th 2012 the Vita moved 1.07mill, whereas from Dec 16th 2012 - Dec 13th 2013 it sold 1.15 mill which is only a 7% increase YoY. If 2014 manages that increase rate the total would be 1.23 mill by Dec 2014 which in addition to your .22 in N.A and .58 in EU would total 2.03  (33.8% decrease from 2013). 

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41259/Japan/

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41623/Japan/

You're not being generous, you're being wrong. Vita is down YOY in the west but up in Japan. It's ridiculous that you continue to ignore this.

Maybe it's because you have the wrong numbers? This site has lots of cool features. No need to bother with the weekly sales and LTD numbers. Just go here: http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php?reg=Japan&ending=Yearly My numbers are correct, as far as VGCHARTZ goes.

With accurate numbers now, can you see why everyone is disagreeing with you?

I never stated you were wrong in claiming it was up in Japan. I gave you a perfect example as to how your numbers were completely off. Also I do not see how everyone is arguing with me or else you would see the usual brigade of Sony fans in here. There are only a couple of you with rose coloured glasses who are attempting and failing to debate this (that does not include those disagreeing with my opinion, just those who are arguing with the numbers).

I do not see how my numbers can be wrong if we are using the same source. 

I never stated you stated I was wrong in claiming it was up in Japan. I stated you're ignoring it and just blowing the yoy increase off. That makes sense since you think it's up only 7%. Your numbers however are wrong. How hard is it to just look at my link to see my numbers are correct? In your own words, "I do not see how my numbers can be wrong if we are using the same source."

Everyone is disagreeing with you. Have you read your own thread? Only one person didn't predict Vita will outsell GameGear, and I'm not sure if he was trolling or not.

TurboElder said: "Vita will be dead in the next 6 months." http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5979211

I am failing to debate with you. I'll admit it. Same with everyone else. You're blindly ignoring everything we say and instead calling us all biased Sony fans. Has it ever occurred to you that maybe we just disagree? Even more shocking, maybe we're better at "numbers" than you are?

Maybe we're not. Maybe your sales prediction ends up being practically perfect. Can you at least give me the courtesy though of debating back instead of acting like a brick wall?

It is completely fine that you disagree with me, and I would disagree that your better at numbers. We all can manipulate numbers to make the appearance that they look better than they actually are. As I explained earlier if you go by the launch date to the same week ending the following year (Dec 17th 2011- Dec 16th 2012) which is 1 full year since availability the Vita moved 1.07mill. From Dec 16th 2012 - Dec 13th 2013 it sold 1.15 mill which as I explained earlier is only a 7% increase YoY.

Unfortunately we can only guestimate at this point for E.U & N.A as we are not in the 3rd week of February but lets use current numbers to make an asssumption. From 1 full year after launch E.U numbers were 1.57 mill, since then it has only moved an additional 810k. Now lets be generous and say it manages and and average of 40k per week, for 7 weeks following bring it to  1.09mill for it's 2nd full year since launch. That is a decline of 31%. Bring it over to North America where the vita's first full year on the market since launch is 1.24 mill. Using the same formula as last time I am going to be generous and say the Vita averages 30k per week for the next 7 weeks. That would only bring the 2nd year total from launch to 650K or a 45% decline from the previous year.

How I came to the initial 30% sales decline in one of my originating arguments was due to including the the 2 weeks of Japan launch in 2011 (in my first year total) as N.A & EU did not launch until late Feb. So including the 2 weeks in December with the vita's first full year, compared to it's second year, we saw a 30% decline.

Either way you look at it there is a plausibility that the Vita could be discontinued before it reachses 11 million. That's not to say that companies stop releasing software, especially if the attach rate ends up high and profits are made. I believe that alot of Sony fans are just being way to optimistic given the data provided and if it does manage to pass the GameGear in sales, then it won't be by a significant amount.