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I think PS4 is going to be a beast in Japan. The total sales from home consoles last gen is ~24M so far. I see the market shrinking again, but no more than 4M, so total sales will be ~20M. I'll give the One 1M sales, as I don't see it doing well in Japan without the year head start the 360 had. MS also seems like they aren't worried about launching there any time soon. That leaves 19M between the Wii U and PS4. Seeing as the Wii U seems to only do well during the holiday season, with slight bumps from bigger games, I don't see it doing more than 5M there. So, that leaves ~14M for the PS3.