Can 3DS outsell PSP (lifetime)?

[Viper1]

pezus said:

Viper1 said:

Mandalore76 said:
Easily.

PSP 1st 3 years - 32,385,115
3DS 1st 3 years - 42,440,159

I fail to see how the 3DS is supposedly going to struggle to surpass something it is already out-trending by over 10 million units. It may not be nearly on pace with its predecessor the DS, but that's not your question. Your question is whether it will overtake the PSP, which I think it is clear that it will do that and more. Combine that with the fact that in it's first 3 years, the 3DS has sold almost half of the PSP's lifetime software sales, I see no reason for why the 3DS won't cruise past the PSP's lifetime hardware number.

Apparently the "trajectory" is that the 3DS will suddenly slow down so much after this year that it won't be able to eventually surpass PSP. Despite the 10 million lead.

Something like this:

2014 - 13m
2015 - 11m
2016 - 7.5m
2017 - 4m
2018 - 1.5m
2019 - 0.5m

This isn't a massive slowdown. This is just normal stuff for a Nintendo system in the past 10 years, at least. This would actually be smaller drops than Wii got, and probably smaller than DS (even though I haven't checked).

I am disappointed that you're agreeing with his logic of looking at the first 3 years and expecting that to be the trend, when it never has been with Playstation vs. Nintendo.

I am disappointed in you that you are expecting a trend that is only relevant individually to have a communal effect on all future products and for applying said trend at an arbitrary point you desire without any consideration for further possibilities of increased sales, territorial expansion into China, new models, price cuts, Wii U connectivity, etc...

I mean if we're going to be looking at trends, at least look at the one that is applicable and has current relevance.  Not one that is based on products that had their own circumstances.  Wii dropped off because X360 and PS3 took off.  3DS doesn't have that kind of compeition.   DS dropped off because it was on the market for 7 years before the successor launched...which also caused reduced sales.  

3DS will drop off early why?