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I'm gonna go pessimistic and say 150k Jan, then 100k in Feb before ramping up to ~130k min a week once Driveclub and Infamous hits. I love my PS4 but I still believe its launch lineup is a bit meh (though no worse than most launch line-ups), and that will hurt once supply catches up with demand in Feb. However by end of Mar I think its game line-up will be much broader and that will have a positive impact.

I still think PS4 will go the best of the consoles over the next two years (I refuse to predict longer than that), so please don't take the above as me predicting doom for the PS4.