I really don't think so. First of all, people doesn't seem to like Kinect at all right now. Perhaps if MS would have some great games using Kinect but so far there are none. In some games which could have been at least mediocre, bad Kinect controls are actually ruining experience. Unless they something unique and interesting with Kinect, it actually hurts X1 more that it helps sales.
And exclusives don't really matter as much as they used to because all biggest franchises are multiplatform and are released on both consoles. AC, COD, FIFA and GTA etc are all released on both consoles and are bigger than almost all of the exclusive games. Yes, even FIFA which is absolutely huge in europe, bigger than Halo there. So a lot of people buy console for multiplatform games, not for exclusive games. Exclusive games do help sales a lot but they alone won't determine the winner. Unless there are some absolutely huge exclusives but I haven't seen any on either console yet (Halo is big in USA but not in Europe).
Essay Pro