ioi speaks out about ergh "VGC analysts"

[Zod95]

DonFerrari said:

Zod95 said:

Basically you're telling me that ioi is wrong when saying "when we publish a figure of 600k we are saying that we are 95% certain it has sold somewhere between 300k and 900k", since a 5% margin (as you claim they use) of 600k doesn't go to 900k or 300k. Is that right?

Partialy... they have 95% of certainty of this interval, not that 300K or 900K are significant in the analysis... like its stated in the same post it would decrease certainty the narrower you get the band... so 400k-800k would be less and 550k-650k even less... but even so to have both numbers as you said one lets say at 300k and other in 450k the probability of they being inverted is quite low.

Partially how?? I think ioi's sentence is 100% accurate whereas yours is 100% incorrect. VG Chartz doesn't have 95% confidence about values with 5% margin of error. They have 95% confidence about "X - 3X" intervals, which is a hell of a range (in my opinion) to use unrounded values placed into rankings. As for the combination of 2 major errors to be 1 in a million, you know it isn't true. I'm not sure but I think it would be 5%^2 = 0.25% (1 in every 400).