Currently Online 
Not going to happen.
The Vita will do pretty well, I think, but the audience is still niche. Japan has gone social in a big way, with a ton of female and semi-casual gamers who want stuff like Animal Crossing and Puzzles & Dragons, and the Vita doesn't seem to offer them much. It needs social games and it needs games that appeal to kids. The funny thing is, Vita's touch-screen would be great for those games.
The 3DS has the big games that will continue to sell very well. That, quite honestly, will be enough for it to easily out-sell the Vita. Small developers will continue to support the Vita, where they do just as well if not better than on the 3DS, but big Japanese publishers are often cautious to a fault and will probably only put the biggest IPs on the 3DS.
