| Kresnik said: Speculating about future performance is one of the things I most look forward to in Japan sales thread. I mean, commentary on whats coming up in future is basically why I follow Japanese sales becuase I find it fascinating. If you think it's too early to do that, you don't have to join in (and you can ignore my posts too if it bothers you), it's just something I like doing. I don't know what better place to discuss Japanese sales trends than in a Japanese sales thread, though. |
It certainly wasn't my intention to criticize general speculation regarding 3DS lineup or from any other platform. Quite the contrary, actually, since I enjoy it too. My point was about the terms in which it was being discussed, that's all. It just doesn't seem reasonable to me to make comments like "there's hardly anything big for 2014 so far" which don't take into account the time we're in and the situation of the market, or either minimize or dismiss founded speculation regarding any "big" title that might get announced. How can we discuss the prospects of 3DS 2014 lineup and sales while limiting the discussion to only the few confirmed titles we know so far ? We know for a fact that there's going to be far more than that, and yet, we don't acknowledge it somehow ?
I also disagree with how those potential million sellers mentioned before get minimized for not being as big as the rest, specially when you do mention Tales and Persona as relevant in PS3's case... Even taking into account the differences between the platforms, it doesn't make sense to me. Tales of Zestiria will be the 5th Tales game on PS3 (3rd fully new), yet it matters as much or more for the platform than the first Kirby for 3DS does ? And how much do you expect Persona 5 to sell ? Again, I do get the fact that these platforms are at different points of their cycles and the differences in expectations, but the difference in expected sales and impact makes up for it here, in my opinion at least.
Traditionally Nintendo consoles don't have as long a tail as Sony consoles (see: DS vs. PSP 2011-2013 sales; Wii vs. PS3 2011-now sales) so that'd make me believe that Nintendo will have to push it harder earlier.
Yes, recent Nintendo platforms don't have as much "legs" as Sony ones sales-wise, and that is in big part deliberate. The faster you sell, the sooner you get to that level of "saturation" hardware-wise, and Nintendo's strategy is to create affordable platforms that sell well from the start, to then sell their software until they feel ready to move on. And of course, the known "big hitters" run out eventually, which is part of what we're discussing. The thing is, is this a bad thing somehow ? I don't think so... I think it's a mistake to keep focusing the discussion on when does 3DS peak or whether it is making up now for hypothetical future sales of a Sony platform.
From Nintendo's point of view, all they need is to have 5 years of "strong" hardware sales, leaving them enough time to release a successor at year 6 or 7, while the older platform runs its course. And in order to do that, they don't need several "mega" hits (Pokémon/Mario/Dragon Quest/etc level) each year. They just need enough in the first few years to push the hardware, and then act as "pillars" to sustain the platform while other relevant, yet less popular software shows up. Besides, there's nothing stopping Nintendo from releasing sequels to popular games if needed, and handheld 3rd party support is for them, unlike with home consoles, sustainable.
And I mean, the other speculation I have is what they could actually realistically get for their console that'd actually push it harder. Because right now, Dragon Quest XI and Smash (potentially) are the only two things I can think of that haven't shown up yet.
What about a hypothetical Rhythm Heaven (1.93m on DS) ? And why not Mario Party ? (1.98m on DS) Those could end up being as big as Smash 3DS...
Anyway... I honestly don't see 3DS "struggling" in the next 2 years at least, but of course, the Japanese market can't depend on it. I still believe WiiU can carve its own successful niche at least, specially in Japan where the impact of their IPs is bigger, to the point of having a good shot of being the most popular home console there. Recent sales numbers certainly point to a substantial recovery, even without knowing yet where the baseline will be in the next months. Then again, I'm a Nintendo fan, so take that as you will...
