| seiya19 said: Don't you think it's a bit ridiculous to make this kind of call so early, use an interpretation of "big" that only a handful of IPs have ever been able to achieve, dismiss founded speculation regarding a few of said IPs, and criticize the result ?. The standards become so high that no platform could ever reach them... If we talk about million sellers, Mario Party: Island Tour, Dragon Quest Monsters 2 and Kirby Triple Deluxe can very well get there. Maybe Yoshi and Smash, perhaps even Zelda (part of it in 2014). All these are on the same level as any non-Monster Hunter game on PSP in Japan, and just stuff we know already. I honestly don't see how can this lineup be put into question considering the reality of the market. If these games along with anything that might come (Dragon Quest/Monster Hunter/Rhythm Heaven/Pokémon/new IPs/smaller games/etc) can't keep 3DS from a "substantial" decline, what can ? Where is the line here that separates reasonable expectations from unreasonable ones ? |
Speculating about future performance is one of the things I most look forward to in Japan sales thread. I mean, commentary on whats coming up in future is basically why I follow Japanese sales becuase I find it fascinating. If you think it's too early to do that, you don't have to join in (and you can ignore my posts too if it bothers you), it's just something I like doing. I don't know what better place to discuss Japanese sales trends than in a Japanese sales thread, though.
The reason I find it interesting is the explanation I provided to Tbone. Nintendo have, to their credit, kept the platform going with two massive ("big" seems to be upsetting people so perhaps I should stop using it) games a year alongside a sea of "big" titles which has netted them ~ 5m / year sales for the past 3 years (2011: Mario Kart/3D Mario; 2012: Animal Crossing/NSMB; 2013: Pokemon/Monster Hunter) and I was just speculating that we don't know what 2014 has in terms of this, and that makes me wonder what effect this'll have on hardware sales.
Traditionally Nintendo consoles don't have as long a tail as Sony consoles (see: DS vs. PSP 2011-2013 sales; Wii vs. PS3 2011-now sales) so that'd make me believe that Nintendo will have to push it harder earlier.
And I mean, the other speculation I have is what they could actually realistically get for their console that'd actually push it harder. Because right now, Dragon Quest XI and Smash (potentially) are the only two things I can think of that haven't shown up yet. Which is to do with the penetration of smartphones into handheld console sales, a topic I'm sure you can understand is quite hot right now.
I mean, don't get me wrong. This isn't localized to 3DS as it's a topic I'd discuss about Vita too. I'm already wondering whether it'll actually beat 2013 sales considering it had price cut + new model + a variety of bigger-than-2012 games this year. I'm not sure the 2014 titles, aside from Phantasy Star Nova, are actually up to snuff for increasing userbase and I think Sony are heavily relying on selling to a type of user who is already there (i.e. okatus; anime fans; hunting game fans) which will do nothing to give it a bigger 2014. But 3DS was the topic of the moment with Tbone bringing up with Ryuzaki about it, so that's what I went with.
Nor am I saying 3DS sales are bad. They're not at all, it's the healthiest console in the market. And that's yet another reason I'm discussing this topic, because I'm wondering how it's going to keep itself as healthy as it has been into its 4th year. DS & Wii have long since dropped off; PSP & PS3 are going (although I expect PS3 to last another year with Persona & Tales still coming) and Vita & Wii-U have yet to take off in any substantial capacity. Maybe it is unreasonable to pin my expectations on 3DS but it's the best shot the Japanese market has of keeping itself alive until Vita & Wii-U figure out what the hell they're going to be (and I don't believe PS4 is going to do anything to alleviate the drop off).
