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Microsoft is going to end up in last place in the 7th gen for a few reasons.

1. RROD turned off a whole lot of gamers early on.
2. The Kinect was supported for about a year and then they stopped making games for it.
3. The 1st party games for the last few years have been few and far between, and almost all of them were sequels that were no better then their predecessors.
4. Relying on COD way too much - This one has blown my mind for years. PS3 has the exact same game, yet they have treated the franchise like an exclusive, and now that COD is selling what it is on Playstations consoles, its pretty clear that people couldn't care less about which console they play it on.

Microsoft is in deep trouble this gen. COD's popularity is down. The overall response to Kinect is "meh" at best. The 1st party games are all aimed towards the same crowd that have already bought the console. The only way I see Xbox doing really well this gen is if they lay off the really mature games and start making more fun games that are aimed at a wider audience. Otherwise its going to be the home console Vita. Sell a bunch to start, keep pumping out games aimed at the same audience, console sales go down the tubes.