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pokoko said:
Japan is extremely trend oriented, though, so a big hit by Nintendo or a partner could possibly make it a close race or even give Nintendo the edge... Nintendo scoring a big franchise could be key.

Clever thought.

 

pokoko said:

The fight for third-party exclusives in Japan is going to be fierce.

I don't think so. Close but not fierce. As a market, Japan is becoming more and more irrelevant for home consoles. They are still the 2nd biggest country in videogaming but not only they are focusing more on handhelds but also new emerging markets are making Japan's share to become thinner. And console makers understand that. Look at the beginning of the 7th generation: Japan had all the 3 consoles at launch while Europe had only 2. Look at the current generation: Japan had only 1 console at launch while Europe had all 3.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M