| Seece said: Yeah, it's not going up 300% YOY and on par with November with Black Friday. No console in history has ever done that. The numbers are just unrealistic full stop. You're expect January to be bigger than November. WiiU has little to no momentum. the 220k in US (and likely less in Europe) are terrible results and suggest that it's going to crater again in January like it did this year. Japan is doing well, but still think you're aiming too high there. |
No system has ever been up 300% YOY in January? Maybe. But in other months, it has certainly happened. June 2007 to June 2008, PS3 saw an increase in the US from 100k to nearly 360k. The DS in the US saw sales of around 140-190k each year in January for 2005-2007... and then jumped to 460k in January 2008. So it's certainly not unheard of for sudden and dramatic changes in numbers like that.
As for November vs January, we turn to the PS3's second holidays in the US, where, in November 2007, it sold 367k, and then in January 2008, it sold 296k - certainly in the same ballpark. Indeed, it's a drop of about 20%. 20% less than the Wii U's november according to NPD places it at roughly 180k. Given that I'm treating "America" as including Canada, which adds about 10%, that brings the number up to about 200k. So on both the YOY and November->January measures, my prediction has precedent.
As for momentum, here are the numbers for weekly sales changes in the US in the last six weeks of data (not including PS4/XBO, since they're in launch mode, sales will be in decline week-on-week after launch):
PS3: +18%, +41%, 0%, +35%, +375%, -69% --> 231% (average of +22%)
360: +14%, +65%, +3%, +36%, +454%, -74% --> 280% (average of +25%)
3DS: -1%, +4%, +3%, +19%, +274%, -56% --> 108% (average of +13%)
PSV: +3%, +11%, +34%, +22%, +313%, -66% --> 162% (average of +17%)
Wii: +20%, +21%, +26%, +16%, +235%, -55% --> 220% (average of +21%)
WiiU: +27%, +29%, +30%, +61%, +230%, -56% --> 498% (average of 35%)
The Wii U weekly sales numbers have gone up by nearly 500% since the end of October. Of the other platforms, the best seen is 360, with a 280% increase. There can be no doubt that the Wii U has been gaining momentum.
