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Seece on 20 December 2013
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Aielyn said:
Seece said:
So you're assuming that WiiU is going to take up the lost Wii sales? Why isn't this happening now? You expect the console to be up 200%+ YOY with just Wii Fit releasing and no post launch hype.

500k would be incredible, just doesn't seem logical tho. You're expecting it to do more in the US in January than this November with Black Friday and Mario 3D World.

I said nothing about how the system will sell in the US.

For one thing, in Japan, sales tend to be better in January than in November. Indeed, I could see it making 200k in Japan in January, based on recent sales patterns (even if it sold about the same in Japan for the remainder of December as it did in the most recent week of data, it would end up selling 280k, not counting the final week of December, and if we suppose a roughly linear ramp-up, it comes to about 350k; Japan doesn't have the huge holiday peak that America has, so 200k for January isn't unreasonable, in my opinion)

In the US, I'd expect somewhere around 200k, as well - placing it below November, but not dramatically lower. I would attribute this to a shift in momentum - the Wii U was competing with the PS4 and XBO launches, with all of the associated advertising, etc... and Nintendo weren't even advertising the Wii U at that time. They've since ramped up advertising, increasing awareness. I expect sales to be stronger into 2014.

In Europe, 70k would be a reasonable estimate. To put this into perspective, the Wii sold 150k in January 2013. I do see the Wii U managing to get somewhere around half of that number in January 2014 (considering that the Wii U is selling roughly half as well in November/December 2013 as the Wii did in November/December 2012 in Europe, it seems a reasonable prediction, to me). And then, of course, there's the "Others", which I can see making up the remaining 30k.

The path to 500k isn't implausible at all, from what I can see. But then, it's a prediction, not a known fact. I could be wrong. It could sell less. Or it could sell more. We're just going to have to wait and see.

Yeah, it's not going up 300% YOY and on par with November with Black Friday. No console in history has ever done that. The numbers are just unrealistic full stop. You're expect January to be bigger than November.

WiiU has little to no momentum. the 220k in US (and likely less in Europe) are terrible results and suggest that it's going to crater again in January like it did this year. Japan is doing well, but still think you're aiming too high there.