Feb-April 2014. Reasons:
1) Japan launch will kick in and add 1-1.5M easily. I think too that Sony will ship more than 5M units and that was only a conservative figure. They probably shipped close to 3M and will be at 4M by years end. They would't go for a Japanese launch with only 1M units for it and the rest of the world.
2) Besides that, it's an easy to manufacture console and they will have plenity of stock. The APU is based on AMDs newer tech that will be in a lot of desktops and notebooks, so the mass production will drop prices and improve yelds. The memory is normal GDDR5 used on GPUs and the rest is pretty common. Both Sony and MS will have massive stocks.
3) Last year they will have by that timeframe InFamous, DriveClub and Deep Down. Watch Dogs will at a month to launch and there will bee the hype for Destiny and Uncharted 4. It will sell like hotcakes.
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